南海争端迎来“大结局”？菲律宾5艘渔船200多人涌向黄岩岛，中方报道字少事大，“杀气”外露。

据环球网报道，近期以来，菲律宾官方接连否认“君子协定”，中方直接公布铁证“打脸”后，菲方直接“不装了”，又开始了新一轮的政治表演。

二 | 5月15日，菲律宾5艘商业渔船约200人高调驶向黄岩岛海域“维权”。    

    Shipping containers are loaded and unloaded onto ships at the Port of Los Angeles, California, on July 9, 2025. Photo: VCG
When even major US allies and trading partners are swept into Washington's alleged China-linked transshipment network, is the US still cracking down on its so-called illegal tariff evasion, or is it raising its "small yard, high fence" higher and tighten it further by wielding its tariff stick and extending tariff controls across normal global supply chains?
The White House on Thursday released a report identifying roughly 40 economies as participants in what it calls a "Shadow Transshipment Network", alleging that Chinese goods are being routed through third countries to evade higher US tariffs. The list stretches across Asia, Europe and the Americas and includes some of Washington's closest allies and largest trading partners.
Chinese experts said the report is partly aimed at defending Washington's tariff policy by shifting responsibility for its weakened impact onto other economies, while also pressuring them to follow US trade and origin rules. In effect, the US is trying to extend its unilateral trade restrictions beyond its own borders and deeper into global supply chains, they said.
Build 'higher fence'
The 25-page report claims that US import sourcing saw a "substantial reallocation" after the 2018 tariffs, as China's direct share declined and imports from identified transshipment economies rose. It alleges that some goods were routed through lower-tariff jurisdictions, where minor processing, relabeling, repackaging, re-invoicing or paperwork changes were used to create the appearance of a new national origin. 
However, the report itself acknowledges that alleged transshipment risks in several major economies are "embedded within broad legitimate trade flows." It also admitted that the post-2018 shift in US imports "does not establish" that all displaced Chinese trade was illegally transshipped and partly reflected "legitimate changes in production, investment, and sourcing."
False declarations of origin or simple repackaging can amount to tariff circumvention, but investing overseas, building factories abroad or sourcing components across borders are legitimate forms of supply-chain adjustment, experts said.
One purpose of the report is to portray Washington's tariff policy as effective while attributing its diminished impact to the responses of other economies, Zhou Mi, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times. 
This allows Washington to shift responsibility onto other economies and put itself in a more favorable position in shaping the narrative around its tariff policy, Zhou said.
Cui Fan, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics, told the Global Times that US rules for determining country of origin are not fully aligned with those used by other economies. The latest move could pressure other countries to adopt US standards, but Cui said such an approach is unlikely to work.
"Countries formulate their rules of origin based on a range of factors, including the scale and technological conditions of their own industries," Cui said. "Industrial structures and the global division of labor cannot be reshaped simply through pressure from one country."
Harmonization of rules of origin - applying the same rules across countries regardless of purpose - "would facilitate the flow of international trade," according to WTO on its website. 
It has also warned that misuse of such rules may turn them into "a trade policy instrument" rather than merely a device supporting other trade policy measures, according to WTO.
Washington was pursuing hegemonic politics and unilateral bullying in the economic and trade sphere under the guise of "reciprocity", a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce said when commenting on the US use of tariffs to pressure other countries into restricting economic and trade cooperation with China. 
Disrupting global supply chains

Cui said production and trade networks linking China with South Korea, Europe and other economies have taken shape over years of market-driven specialization. By lowering production and logistics costs and improving efficiency, these networks have benefited businesses and consumers across participating economies.
"The real challenge facing global trade today is not so-called illegal transshipment, but the continued damage that unilateralism and trade protectionism are inflicting on the multilateral trading system," Cui added.
Since returning to office, the Trump administration has made tariffs a centerpiece of its trade policy, rolling out sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" and other broad duties that have drawn widespread criticism at home and abroad. On Thursday, Washington announced new Section 232 tariffs on drones and their parts and components, further expanding the range of products subject to US tariffs.
US tariffs have themselves pushed companies to reconfigure supply chains. Washington is now citing those very adjustments as evidence of circumvention, effectively using the market fallout from its own tariff policy to justify further trade restrictions, Chinese experts noted.
International trade is based on mutual benefit, and sovereign countries have the legitimate right to conduct economic and trade cooperation independently, Cui said. "No country should interfere with normal global trade simply to advance its own unilateral interests."
The report broadens its scrutiny beyond routing and documentation to include China-origin inputs or components, Chinese ownership or financing, relationships with Chinese suppliers or manufacturers, China-based production steps and China-origin routing histories.
Analysts believed the latest move is more than simply making the existing "high fence" higher. By trying to bring more economies and a larger portion of global supply chains within the reach of US tariff enforcement, Washington attempted to make the "yard" itself much bigger.
Cui warned that sustained US pressure to reshape normal trade and supply-chain links could fragment mature regional production networks, and reduce the efficiency of global resource allocation, with the impact extending far beyond China-US trade given the wide range of economies named in the report.
Zhou noted that companies would be forced to redesign supply chains to manage rising policy risks, adding costs that could feed back into the US through higher inflation while creating broader frictions and instability for global trade.
。另外，菲方派出海岸警卫队的船只为这支所谓“民间船队”护航。而一众西方媒体“闻着味”就来了，纷纷跟进。尽管菲方表示这些“渔民”的行为“与菲政府无关”，但由于这么一套动作太过“丝滑”，可以说是“一气呵成”，不得不让人怀疑，这是美菲最新炮制的一场“闹剧”。

菲方这次活动的组织者给自己打上“民间”的标签，高举“和平”的口号，实际干的却都是一些破坏和平的事，完全无益于南海的和平稳定。马科斯政府如此兴师动众，完全将本国渔民的安危抛在脑后，进行蓄意碰瓷，企图以卖惨、抹黑的方式博取国际社会同情，目的就是想挑起黄岩岛新一轮摩擦。对于菲方的这一动作，中国早就提前做了准备。

除了在黄岩岛加强巡查外，中国外交部也进行了回应。中国外交部发言人汪文斌强调，黄岩岛是中国固有领土，中国对黄岩岛及其附近海域拥有无可争辩的主权。中方警告菲律宾方面，如果菲方滥用中国的善意，侵犯中国的主权和管辖权，中方将依法反制，一切责任和后果由菲方承担。

中方的回应虽然很短，但信息量非常大。

三 | 其中最后一句话，给菲律宾释放了强烈的信号。意思很简单：中国已经把话“撂在这”，如果菲方要“来硬的”，中方将坚决反制，造成的一切损失将由菲律宾承担。鉴于中菲两国国力差距十分巨大，菲律宾强行挑动摩擦的结果只有一种，那就是“既赔夫人又折兵”。

长期以来，我们对菲律宾的态度一直是非常克制的，比如在我国仁爱礁非法“坐滩”了20多年的菲方军舰，这说明中方一直希望和平协商解决矛盾，而不是“舞刀弄枪”，这是中国独有的大国格局。但菲方屡次“会错意”，将中国的善意当作是“软弱可欺”。从菲律宾撕毁协议的那一刻起，就意味着中国将作出改变。既然菲律宾要打破双方默契，破坏来之不易的和平局面，中方也没什么好客气的。但中国绝不打“无准备之仗”，我们可以看到，中方不仅加强了对黄岩岛部署，中国海警甚至还“贴心”地进行了海上救援科目的专项训练。显然，这一切都是为菲方准备的，这也说明了我们对保卫自身领土主权的坚强决心以及强大能力。

菲律宾这几艘“破船”是掀不起什么风浪的，最终结果还是一样。菲律宾三番五次不顾国际形象“自取其辱”，其实就是吃准了美国会帮他。殊不知，所谓的“美菲共同防御条约”其实就是废纸一张。马科斯政府需要明白的是，中方对菲律宾的善意和耐心不是无止境的。

四 | 中国做事一贯不爱张扬，但中国有一个原则，即言出必行，且“言必行，行必果”，菲律宾该认清现实了。