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US transshipment claims attempt to build ‘higher fence,’ disrupt global supply chains: experts_我的网站

一 |           　　在过去很长一段时间，服装、家具、家电作为外贸“老三样”，曾是中国制造在国际市场上最早的“名片”。    

    Shipping containers are loaded and unloaded onto ships at the Port of Los Angeles, California, on July 9, 2025. Photo: VCG
When even major US allies and trading partners are swept into Washington's alleged China-linked transshipment network, is the US still cracking down on its so-called illegal tariff evasion, or is it raising its "small yard, high fence" higher and tighten it further by wielding its tariff stick and extending tariff controls across normal global supply chains?
The White House on Thursday released a report identifying roughly 40 economies as participants in what it calls a "Shadow Transshipment Network", alleging that Chinese goods are being routed through third countries to evade higher US tariffs. The list stretches across Asia, Europe and the Americas and includes some of Washington's closest allies and largest trading partners.
Chinese experts said the report is partly aimed at defending Washington's tariff policy by shifting responsibility for its weakened impact onto other economies, while also pressuring them to follow US trade and origin rules. In effect, the US is trying to extend its unilateral trade restrictions beyond its own borders and deeper into global supply chains, they said.
Build 'higher fence'
The 25-page report claims that US import sourcing saw a "substantial reallocation" after the 2018 tariffs, as China's direct share declined and imports from identified transshipment economies rose. It alleges that some goods were routed through lower-tariff jurisdictions, where minor processing, relabeling, repackaging, re-invoicing or paperwork changes were used to create the appearance of a new national origin. 
However, the report itself acknowledges that alleged transshipment risks in several major economies are "embedded within broad legitimate trade flows." It also admitted that the post-2018 shift in US imports "does not establish" that all displaced Chinese trade was illegally transshipped and partly reflected "legitimate changes in production, investment, and sourcing."
False declarations of origin or simple repackaging can amount to tariff circumvention, but investing overseas, building factories abroad or sourcing components across borders are legitimate forms of supply-chain adjustment, experts said.
One purpose of the report is to portray Washington's tariff policy as effective while attributing its diminished impact to the responses of other economies, Zhou Mi, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times. 
This allows Washington to shift responsibility onto other economies and put itself in a more favorable position in shaping the narrative around its tariff policy, Zhou said.
Cui Fan, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics, told the Global Times that US rules for determining country of origin are not fully aligned with those used by other economies. The latest move could pressure other countries to adopt US standards, but Cui said such an approach is unlikely to work.
"Countries formulate their rules of origin based on a range of factors, including the scale and technological conditions of their own industries," Cui said. "Industrial structures and the global division of labor cannot be reshaped simply through pressure from one country."
Harmonization of rules of origin - applying the same rules across countries regardless of purpose - "would facilitate the flow of international trade," according to WTO on its website. 
It has also warned that misuse of such rules may turn them into "a trade policy instrument" rather than merely a device supporting other trade policy measures, according to WTO.
Washington was pursuing hegemonic politics and unilateral bullying in the economic and trade sphere under the guise of "reciprocity", a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce said when commenting on the US use of tariffs to pressure other countries into restricting economic and trade cooperation with China. 
Disrupting global supply chains

Cui said production and trade networks linking China with South Korea, Europe and other economies have taken shape over years of market-driven specialization. By lowering production and logistics costs and improving efficiency, these networks have benefited businesses and consumers across participating economies.
"The real challenge facing global trade today is not so-called illegal transshipment, but the continued damage that unilateralism and trade protectionism are inflicting on the multilateral trading system," Cui added.
Since returning to office, the Trump administration has made tariffs a centerpiece of its trade policy, rolling out sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" and other broad duties that have drawn widespread criticism at home and abroad. On Thursday, Washington announced new Section 232 tariffs on drones and their parts and components, further expanding the range of products subject to US tariffs.
US tariffs have themselves pushed companies to reconfigure supply chains. Washington is now citing those very adjustments as evidence of circumvention, effectively using the market fallout from its own tariff policy to justify further trade restrictions, Chinese experts noted.
International trade is based on mutual benefit, and sovereign countries have the legitimate right to conduct economic and trade cooperation independently, Cui said. "No country should interfere with normal global trade simply to advance its own unilateral interests."
The report broadens its scrutiny beyond routing and documentation to include China-origin inputs or components, Chinese ownership or financing, relationships with Chinese suppliers or manufacturers, China-based production steps and China-origin routing histories.
Analysts believed the latest move is more than simply making the existing "high fence" higher. By trying to bring more economies and a larger portion of global supply chains within the reach of US tariff enforcement, Washington attempted to make the "yard" itself much bigger.
Cui warned that sustained US pressure to reshape normal trade and supply-chain links could fragment mature regional production networks, and reduce the efficiency of global resource allocation, with the impact extending far beyond China-US trade given the wide range of economies named in the report.
Zhou noted that companies would be forced to redesign supply chains to manage rising policy risks, adding costs that could feed back into the US through higher inflation while creating broader frictions and instability for global trade.
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二 | 随着时代的发展，电动汽车、锂电池和光伏产业近年来快速崛起，这“新三样”成为了引领中国产业跃升的新增长引擎。     　　就在中国“新三样”领跑全球还被人们津津乐道的时候，被称为“新新三样”的人工智能、机器人、创新药又掀起了新的潮流，有望形成引领外贸发展的新的支柱产业。2026年上半年，我国人工智能开源大模型全球累计下载量突破100亿次，人形机器人整机产品超全球半数，创新药对外技术授权交易总额超过1000亿美元。     　　“新新三样”乘风而起，对于致力于发展新质生产力的城市来说是难得的发展机遇。近年来，瞄准“数字化、绿色化、医养健康”3个方向，济南加快推动产业向新、生产力焕新，这与“新新三样”崛起的轨迹不谋而合。

三 |      　　人工智能：AI+的产业机遇      　　随着AI+应用场景的拓展，人工智能带给经济社会各领域的变化越来越多元。

四 |      　　山东最近公布了首批“人工智能+制造”先锋应用入库培育名单，济南成为全省唯一成功揭榜电子信息行业的入选城市。     　　6月23日，济南市“人工智能+工业软件”创新发展大会暨国家人工智能应用中试基地(工业软件)建设推进会在济南举行。

五 | 这标志着我国首个聚焦工业软件领域的国家级人工智能应用中试基地正式启动建设。国家级平台的落地，从来不是随机选择。它考验的是一座城市的产业基础、创新能力、基础设施和政策环境。     　　作为国家数据要素综合试验区、国家人工智能创新应用先导区、新一代人工智能创新发展试验区、国家工业互联网示范区“四区叠加”城市，济南在数据流通、AI创新、算法试验、工业互联网四个维度上都拿到了国家级的“先行先试”权限。     　　当前，济南将人工智能产业确定为全市13条标志性产业链之一重点培育，依托国家人工智能创新应用先导区、新一代人工智能创新发展试验区等"四区叠加"优势，集聚AI相关企业560余家，核心产业规模突破640亿元。

六 |      　　截至今年5月，济南已备案人工智能大模型117个，其中28个大模型通过生成式人工智能服务备案(含省备案3个)，97个模型通过深度合成服务算法备案(其中8个大模型为双备案)，形成了面向工业、政务、教育、文旅等多个领域的大模型供给能力。

七 |      　　眼下，更多企业正加快把AI向产品研发、数智供应链等全链条延伸。为破解企业转型过程中资金、对接等各类堵点，济南组建了人工智能产业发展办公室，进一步统筹全市人工智能产业发展布局，健全“人工智能+”全链条推进机制，为全市人工智能产业高质量发展注入强劲动能。     　　将独特优势转化为人工智能在制造业落地应用的先发优势，就能在全球智能制造竞争中赢得主动。此前举行的济南(国际)“人工智能+制造”创新发展产业对接会上，12个优质项目集中签约，来自10余个国家的54家采购商与本地企业完成200余场次精准对接，成为城市智能产业生态活力的真实缩影。     　　智能经济的浪潮中，济南正以雄厚的产业基础、充沛的算力资源、丰富的应用场景、优质的服务支持，走出一条独具特色的产业升级之路。      　　机器人：滚烫的新赛道      　　机器人，从没有像现在这样走进人们的工作生活。     　　2026年，被业界视为人形机器人与具身智能规模化商用元年。能不能在这条新赛道闯出点名堂，既要看基础、看实力，也要看决心、看机遇、看环境、看生态。

八 |      　　在这条群雄逐鹿的新赛道上，济南正以实打实的产业数据、硬核的产业链条与开放的应用场景，勾勒出一幅数智赋能的宏伟蓝图。

九 |      　　济南组建机器人产业办公室，推动创新链、产业链、资金链、人才链“四链”深度融合，构建“有人才、有技术、有产品、有场景、有应用、有载体”的“六有”产业生态，并出台专项政策与行动方案，形成全链条支持体系。     　　招商方面，建立“六位一体”工作体系及重点企业图谱，精准推动项目落地;      　　技术攻关方面，对各级“揭榜挂帅”优胜单位给予最高300万元奖励，激发创新活力;      　　企业培育方面，遵循梯度体系，助力中小企业做大做强;      　　平台打造方面，依托山东大学机器人研究中心、具身智能港及训练场等载体，支撑研发与转化;      　　场景应用方面，聚焦十大方向，按成效给予最高100万元奖励;      　　金融保障方面，设立亿元专项资金及投资基金，引导、带动金融和社会资本参与机器人技术创新与产业化落地;      　　人才支持方面，出台专项认定目录，对领军人才给强力扶持。     　　如今，全市机器人企业达147家，核心产业规模占全省近五成。

十 | 从上游核心零部件到中游本体制造，再到下游系统集成应用，一条完整的产业链已然成形。     　　山东亚历山大智能科技有限公司研发的“句芒”操作系统，可实现亚毫秒级实时响应，已在黄金、玻纤等企业落地应用;优宝特智能机器人有限公司仅用2个月时间就成功研发出山东省内首台人形机器人“行者泰山”;山东哈鲁力科智能装备有限公司推出了国内首款获得IIC等级防爆认证的仿生四足机器人;济南重工集团自主研发第三代焊接机器人，使焊接效率提升40%……从“技术突破”到“规模应用”，济南机器人产业正在加速跑。      　　创新药：让创新“活水”持续喷涌      　　创新药是从零开始、填补空白的原创研发药，因其难度大、附加值高，被誉为医药产业“皇冠上的明珠”。     　　“十四五”期间，济南生物医药赛道成果亮眼，5个1类创新药获批上市，55个1类创新药进入临床试验阶段，持续夯实产业发展竞争优势。     　　现代医药产业是济南重点打造的13条标志性产业链之一。2026年1月，市委、市人民政府组建了济南市现代医药产业发展办公室，济南构建了“横向到边、纵向到底”的产业推进机制，现代医药产业发展有了强有力助推器。今年上半年，全市医药材及药品出口24.6亿，增长11%，呈现良好增长势头。     　　创新，需要更好发挥企业主体作用。

十一 | 根据齐鲁制药集团《2025年可持续发展报告》，2025年公司研发投入达到53.7亿元，同比增长23%。伴随高强度研发投入，齐鲁制药在研创新药超120项，涵盖抗肿瘤、自身免疫等多个治疗领域，已有3款1类新药成功上市并全部纳入国家医保目录。此外，公司积极探索前沿技术，将人工智能技术与新药研发紧密结合，覆盖靶点筛选、小分子设计、蛋白序列预测等环节，累计赋能200余个项目。     　　在各地竞逐新质生产力的赛道上，谁牵住了科技创新这个“牛鼻子”，谁就能占领先机、赢得优势。《济南市2026年国民经济和社会发展计划》部署10项重点任务，其中就包括，建强用好各类创新平台，增加高质量科技供给，持续优化人才政策体系，全面提升科技创新综合实力。     　　从“老三样”到“新三样”，再到“新新三样”，市场一直在“变”。一座城市，唯有坚持创新驱动不动摇，方能在大浪淘沙中始终立于潮头。

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